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Prediction for CME (2026-06-09T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-09T21:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46754/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2026-06-09T21:36Z. It is also seen to the SW in SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 but is covered by a real-time data gap in STEREO A COR2. The is most likely an eruption from AR 14461 (S21W19) that appears to be heavily deflected southward likely due its proximity to a coronal hole that was centered around N00W05. The eruption is best seen in SDO AIA 193 as moving field lines and a large area of dimming directed toward the south. The eruption is also accompanied by C2.3 class flare from AR 14461 that peaked at 2026-06-09T19:18Z best seen in SDO AIA 131. In coronagraphs, this CME partially overlaps with far-sided CME: 2026-06-09T21:12Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-06-13T03:58Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/46784/1
Model Inputs:
2026-06-09T16:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-44.0, Lat.=12.0, Speed=380.0, HalfAngle=33.0, Time21.5=2026-06-10T01:55Z
2026-06-09T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=19.0, Lat.=-29.0, Speed=348.0, HalfAngle=21.0, Time21.5=2026-06-10T06:58Z
2026-06-11T00:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-32.0, Lat.=21.0, Speed=885.0, HalfAngle=41.0, Time21.5=2026-06-11T04:45Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-06-13T03:58Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =18.9 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-11T06:37Z
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-14T12:53Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-13T20:31Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260610_015400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 43.90 hour(s)
Difference: 5.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2026-06-11T13:57Z

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